Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 for the first time, driven by persistent ETF demand, April's halving, and Donald Trump's election victory. This is where the real fun begins.
Amid tightened supply from Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April and inflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States, Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election has further boosted corporate adoption of Bitcoin. It also comes with Trump's nomination of crypto-friendly figures for key regulatory positions.
November data once again confirmed ETF flows drive Bitcoin prices: without strong inflows, there are no gains. Clearly, ETFs cannot explain everything happening in the Bitcoin world, but they reportedly account for much of the price action.
According to Ecoinometrics modeling, every 10,000 BTC of monthly ETF inflow drives a 4.4% price increase. This correlation suggests Bitcoin, 'with a very high probability,' could establish itself above $100,000 by the end of the year if December inflows reach 90,000 BTC (about $9.1 billion at the time of writing).
(Source: Ecoinometrics)
"Since the launch, the Bitcoin ETFs have captured 466k BTC. That means over a little less than a year the ETFs have accumulated roughly 2.2% of the total supply of Bitcoins. Adding another 90k BTC to that would bring those holdings to 2.6%. That's totally within reach." (Ecoinometrics)
Indeed, Bitcoin ETFs reportedly continue to experience 'robust' inflows in December, extending the record momentum seen in November following Trump's electoral win.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 2024 rally, while significant, is not its most explosive bull run ever.
While Bitcoin consolidated below the psychological resistance of $100,000, bolstered by strong ETF inflows, crypto traders, buoyed by overall market optimism, turned to altcoins.
$SOL surged, fueled by news of new Solana ETF filings. Memecoins on Ethereum and Solana found another reason to pump with the news of listings on Coinbase.
Tron pumped nearly 100% in a day on Tuesday but has since lost half of that gain—at least for now. Monero soared to a two-year high, as even privacy coins are gaining traction—such is the strong optimism for changes in cryptocurrency regulation. Not to mention Ripple.
#Ethereum, which has lagged behind Bitcoin's gains this year, has surged to an eight-month high above $3,800, and traders are now targeting $7,000 as the long-awaited altseason seems to be finally gathering pace.
In addition to the generally anticipated favorable regulation in the key U.S. market, 10x Research also highlights recent developments in U.S. courts as potential growth catalysts for $ETH:
"The court's ruling that sanctions against the crypto mixer #Tornado Cash were unlawful established a significant precedent, affirming the right of programmers to develop and release smart contract protocols. This decision could potentially ignite a new wave of #DeFi innovation, with Ethereum positioned as the primary beneficiary."
"With limited macro risks and strong flow-price correlation, current levels present an attractive entry point, though year-end institutional appetite remains the key uncertainty." (Ecoinometrics)
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