Bitcoin price suddenly soars over $60,000, Trump-based memecoins rally after an assassination attempt on the former president during his speech at an election rally increases his odds of victory to an all-time high.
(Source)
Donald Trump was speaking on stage at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, when multiple gunshots were heard from an unknown direction. Trump instinctively covered his ear and dropped to the ground, prompting U.S. Secret Service agents to move in to shield him swiftly.
The Ethereum-based MAGA (TRUMP](https://x.com/search?q=TREMP) spiked by more than 63% within an hour of the news breaking.
Also, speculators on Polymarket, the Ethereum-based prediction market, swiftly responded to the assassination attempt, with Trump’s odds of winning the upcoming election increasing from 60% to 71%, according to Polymarket data.
(Source: Polymarket)
As Trump expresses strong support for cryptocurrencies during the current election campaign to attract votes from the crypto community, the widespread reaction to the thwarted assassination attempt has intensified the rebound in the broader crypto market.
All this is unfolding against a backdrop of the German gov’t running out of its Bitcoin reserves for sale and general market optimism, fueled by lower CPI inflation in the United States and related expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Fed.
Source: investing.com
“Rate cut odds for the Fed have skyrocketed for the September meeting, not so much for July. However, I believe the market is underestimating the chances for a July cut. Jobs data is deteriorating fast and the inflation fight will take care of itself in a recessionary environment. The risk of being late outweighs the risk of being too early. We’ll have to see what the FOMC members say over the next week, before their blackout period prior to meetings.” (Ansel Lindner for BMPro)
Rate cuts are generally considered stimulatory and are expected to impact Bitcoin positively. While some analysts predict a stock market recession coinciding with a rate cut, which could lead to a decline in Bitcoin prices due to their correlation, historical data suggests such occurrences are rare. In fact, over the past 40 years, only twice rate cuts have coincided with stock market crashes: during the Dotcom bubble and the Great Financial Crisis. Even the 2019 rate cuts were followed by six months of robust stock market performance before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
(Source: BMPro)
So, as the German bitcoin selling winds down, Bitcoin’s price will likely start aligning with the ongoing rally in the stock market, fueled by positive macro factors. With the first rate cut likely to occur sooner rather than later—enabled by a soft CPI—Bitcoin should experience a significant rally over the next quarter.
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